Bullish on Ukraine

Kyiv, Ukraine. May 28, 2014, 8:15 PM

Do you want to know what I think? Or do you want to know the truth?

Well, I can't tell you the truth about what is going to happen here, As the Polish guy told me in Lviv, noone knows what's going to happen. But I can tell you what I think.

I had lunch with my son just before I left for Ukraine.  Watching developments closely, I planned to pull the plug on this trip, if I thought, as some of my friends thought, it wasn't such a good idea given the state of affairs with Russia.  I really wanted to come here and felt Western Ukraine would be OK.  And at our lunch I told my son "I think Putin just blinked".  So I'm going.

And just now, I read Thomas Friedman's column in the NY Times where he announced that he is the first one to say that Putin blinked.  Well, as you now know, he isn't. I said that three weeks ago.

The reason I made that pronouncement is that Putin had just announced that he was pulling his troops back from the border with Ukraine.  Of course he didn't do it.  But the fact that he felt it was in his interests to portray himself that way meant that he could be feeling the pressure and was not going go further with actions that would be even more disastrous for Russia.

He's done enough damage already to his country.  Short term he gets away with it. Playing the external enemy card always helps a leader by diverting the public from the real problems and improves his popularity.  But, in the long run, the country pays the price and the public wakes up.  Remember George Bush?  And walking around Maidan Square, I can see how the uprising here could be terrifying to him.  He could be next. I'm certainly not predicting that, but he could well be vulnerable in the long run.

The Russian economy is based on commodities, principally oil and gas. Countries that are so "blessed" (read cursed) tend to feel they don't have to develop their "people resources".  The elites running the country make fabulous fortunes while the people, who àre unnecessary for the elites to make fortunes, do not prosper,

In acquiring Crimea, Putin added to Russia's strength.  Crimea has vast offshore oil and gas reserves. But, it did nothing for Russia's weakness: its failure to develop its economy beyond natural resources. And Russia paid and will continue to pay an increasingly heavy price.

By losing Crimea the rest of Ukraine may have been strengthened in that it will avoid the lure of using the development of those resources as a substitute for developing its "people resources". Rest assured that I'm not saying that the loss of Crimea was desirable or should be acceptable to Ukraine, or that it's a good thing. It most certainly is not.

And as inflation has hit Crimea and life under the new ownership doesn't turn out so well, perhaps Putin's efforts to market a return of other Soviet countries to Russia's sphere won't go so well. And the high cost of absorbing Crimea and dealing with its problems will not be very appealing to the other Russian oligarchs or the Russian people who vote so favorably for Putin in the polls these days, as the Russian economy declines and people find they have to pay a price for this adventure, just as Americans did for Bush's.

Ukraine, "the breadbasket of Europe" has the most valuable natural resource of all: Agriculture.  And the most important resource of all, its people, have a high rate of literacy (97% or so) and education. Which is of great value in the "knowledge economy" of the 21st century. Combine this with a per capita income (GDP) of less than $4,000 (less than 1/10th of the UK or US).  Add to this the drive, energy, motivation and willingness to fight to better themselves as evidenced by recent events and you have the ingredients for great upside potential.

Sure, there are downside risks.  The country is weak financially and militarily and is riddled with corruption.  But, the people know this and they are working on these problems.  And they've shown they can make a difference and are committed to continuing to do so.  Also, I think it is the rest of the world's interests to see they succeed.  So, although they may not be helped as much as they should be, by the US and the EU, perhaps they will get just enough help for them to mostly do the job on their own. And my bet is that Putin and Russia will see thàt it is not in their interests (risking further sanctions and reduction in foreign investment into Russia etc.) to take the kind of actions that will derail Ukraine's survival and growth.

I'm not saying that Putin will change his stripes or not continue to cause mischief.  But I believe his trouble making will be contained enough to permit Ukraine to succeed.

Poroshenko, Ukraine's new President is committed to retake the Eastern oblasts where the separarists are in control.  According to the polls there, the people want to remain with Ukraine, not join with Russia. And the chaos and thuggery they have experienced will make them, I believe, supportive of the Ukrainian's now more determined efforts to regain control. Poroshenko, is from the area, speaks Russian and should be just the guy to assure them, as he is committed to doing,  that they will not be marginalized as Russian speakers, the fear that had given the separarists the most support within the populace.

So I'm bullish on Ukraine.  I'm betting on the people of Ukraine with whom I feel priveleged to have seen and spent time with.

As you saw in the first picture, night was falling as I wrote these words.

It's a new day now in Kiev. Sure, there are clouds in the sky, but I do believe brighter days lie ahead.

Let me quickly state that I say all this with great humility. I certainly could be wrong and I reserve the right to change my opinion.  As Yogi Berra said  "It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future".  But this is the way I see things. Only time will tell whether my perception is the "truth".  But, for now, àt least, it is what I think and I'm glad to tell you.

Today, I return to the homeland. Eager to see family and friends after three weeks away.  But this is not my last post.  I've got some great pictures of the sights of Kyiv to share with you. I plan to do that in future posts.  And I will be continuing to follow events here and hope to return in the not too distant future.

I'd be delighted to hear what you think. Either in the comment section below or by email.

Thanks for reading!  And please tell me what you think if you are so inclined.







  

"This is my Country. I love it."

Monday Kyiv 5/26/2014 10AM

Yesterday was election day here in Ukraine, Today, I talked at breakfast with a couple from Spain. What had surprised us, we agreed, was how quiet it is here. There are times walking Maiden Square when the word "peaceful" even enters my mind.

After breakfast I walked out ot the hotel and noticed groupings of photographers and TV journalists. I  decided to talk to one of the young TV reporters (I knew he was because he was holding a microphone and was with a camera man).  He told me they were expecting a demonstraion at noon. In answer to my question, the told me he had been living in Kyiv for 10 years but was from Luhansk. He asked and I told him where I was from. He appeared delighted and shook my hand when I told him I spoke a little Ukrainian -- and did so in Ukrainian.

Khreschatyk Street

Since I had time before the expected demonstration, I decided to wander up Khreschatyk street. This street is normally closed from vehiclular traffic on Sundays and people walk up and down it in fine weather like today. However, now it is closed off all days with the piles of tires.

National Philharmonic

At the eastern end of this boulevard I saw the lovely National Phiharmonic building. Then, wandering up the steep hill of an intersecting street, I found St. Alexander's Church, entered and heard some wonderful music.

St. Alexander's Church

I walked back to the square. There was no mass demonstration.  However, in the shade (it was hot in the 80's) a distinguised looking man (in a suit) was addressing an assembled group.  But, instead of listening, they were vigorously addressing eachother.  I was impressed both by the intensity of their debates and the apparent good nature with which they were being conducted.  It would have been nice if my Ukrainian were sufficient to have a clue as to what they were saying.  But, alas, it is not.  Not yet.

In the evening I talked to a young "soldier". He told me they were waiting for the election results. I asked him who he was hoping would win.  He said "It does not matter.  If they don't do what they should, we will return here". I then joined a small crowd watching the election results come in on the large screen set up in the Square.

As expected, Petro Poroshenko won.  The vote here seems to be for a guy people think is competent and can get things done. The idea is that the people will stay vigilant to make sure the things he gets done are the right things. They are well aware that he is an oligarch and has been part of the system, but this seemed the best choice.

Earlier, in the morning,  when had I talked to the young journalist, it occurred to me that I might be mistaken in assuming he was for independence, since he is from Luhansk, which is in eastern Ukraine, has a large population of Russian speakers and is now under the control of separatists.

In answer to my question I was put straight, and quite firmly. He said -
"This is my country. I love it!"

Thanks for reading!

Hopeful in Kyiv

Kyiv, Sunday, May 25, 2014, 8:30 AM,  Election Day

Maiden Square from my hotel room

I arrived yesterday after a wonderful 5 hour express, non stop train ride from Lviv. The normal ride takes twice as long and is popular as an overnite sleeping experience.  This ride costs 5 times as much but is still only $30. I wanted to view the countryside so I took the express which leaves early in the morning, 5.50 AM, so I would be traveling in daytime.  The train is very modern and comfortable. You see the new and the regular older train here.


One of my reasons for coming here to Ukraine was to be where it's "happening".  By that I mean important history.  I've been inspired by how the Ukrainians seem to be dealing with the problem of lousy governance. The recent revolutions in the Arab world have not ended up well, and Turkey is sliding ever further into autocracy and, of course, Russia which showed so much promise has disappointed. Maybe Ukraine would be different

I expected to see some vestiges of the protests, but thought they would be cleaned up by now. But, as I arrived at my hotel I saw piles of tires. And after I checked into the hotel and walked out onto the square I saw more piles of tires all over the place.  And tents everywhere.

This place still seems like a war zone.  Yes, I know, the situation with Russia in the East, but this is a war with government. While the Ukrainians are hopeful, they have no illusions about the new government and know they will have to hold it to account on a continuing basis.

I saw several guys with serious cameras talking American and asked them what was going to happen here tonight, election eve.  They told me noone knows, but stick around here toe find out.

Exhausted from my continuing and accumulating sleep deficit due to jet lag and the excitement of being here, I decided to turn in early.  But my hotel room looks over the square so I could keep an ear open and see events, if they occurred, from my hotel room.

In the morning I was relieved to find nothing much had occurred. I hadn't missed anything and, more importantly, no violence had occurred.

What I've been priveleged to observe,  first hand, is that the people are not going away. In the city and country where I live, it appears they have and bad governance is endemic.  But here, one hopes, they will make a difference.  That, as well as the cultural wealth and economic opportunity I see here draws me to this beautiful country.

When I told people I was coming here, many said why?  Well now you know.  Thats my story and I'm sticking to it.

Thanks for reading!

Lviv Walkabout

The first picture is of the Lviv historic district from the "High Castle" a very long walk up a high hill but well worth it for the view.   The second picture shows the same town hall you see in the first picture but from the main thoroughfare in town.  I have a beautiful slide show but cannot send it to you because of some technical difficulties in the changes since my TurkeyTravelAdventure blog made by Google and Adobe.  Spent hours trying to overcome these problems. Then decided their was an easier way to get some views of this great city to you.   Not as complete as the slide show but better in some ways.  The first is a video from the South west corner of Rynok Square with me walking towards the North West corner of this the main town square.  You will see the same town hall tower as in the previous pictures.

While rough and noisy and in need of editing for which I don't have time now, I think you will find these give you a taste of what's here. But just a tiny sliver of a taste.

The second video comes from me walking up to the North West corner of the square into the Church of Transfiguration.  My timing could have been better as they were in the process of cleaning it, but I think you can see it's pretty sensational.

The third video comes from me walking from the South West corner of the square to the main boulevard in town, Schevenchenko Boulevard. My hotel the Hotel George is at the Southern end of this boulevard.  I walk up the boulevard. You see the statue of Mary and then the statue of Taras Schevenchenko, Ukraine's greatest hero who was a poet and painter, no less.  I'll let you google him for the details.   I then proceed up the park in the middle of the boulevard (Lviv has beautiful parks all over with great places to sit in good weather).  You can see the fine surrounding architecture and at at the end of the walk, Lviv's great Opera and Ballet house.

Hope you find these interesting.

Tomorrow, I  catch an early (5:50 AM) train to Kiev. I'll be there on Maiden Square election day (Sunday).  Should be interesting!

Thanks for reading!

The Sound(s) of Music

5/15/2014 10 PM

The Halls are Alive with the Sound of Music.

Wandering down a back street, I thought I heard music.  Purely on a whim I decided to enter this large 4 story building from which the sounds emanated.  So glad I did !

It was a perfect rainy day.  Perfect because I had to spend time indoors trying to get my camera and computer talking together as well as wandering the halls of this great school of  music.
                           
I wasn't sure I was going to be able to get these pictures.  In my travels there is, as often as not, someone saying you can't take them, particularly when you most want to. In fact a guy stopped me after I entered,, but when I finally said, in Ukranian, no less (really), that I didn't speak the language, he pointed to his eyes, smiled and let me go.

I then lurked around the halls and stair wells capturing what I could as surreptiously as possible of the students practicing before their lessons.  I heard horns, mandolins, violins, pianos, and and the strands of an aria from one of Pucini's great operas.  If I weren't such a tough guy I would tell you that the sweet cacophony of these beautiful sounds almost brought tears to my eyes.

In the evening I walked around the block from my hotel to the Lviv Philharmonic and heard a wonderful choral performance.   At the conclusion of the performance, I had the unique and totally unexpected opportunity to video this wonderful encore. Even if you are not a classical music fan I think you will find the music in this video inspiring and, especially, the great enthusiasm of the audience.

Ukraine is a poor country.  It has experienced great turmoil historically and, as you know, faces great uncertainty now. But Lviv its most beautiful and nationaly authentic city is truly wealthy in what may matter more than material wealth. Its rich culture.

I can tell you that for one American, being here, particularly at this time, has been both a tremendously rewarding and somewhat humbling experience.

Thanks for reading!

I'm solvent

5/14/2014
I had my son send me money by Western Union.  He did it all online.  Took a couple of hours max and only cost $10.  I'll spare you the details but basically he buys bucks online and I go to a bank here, show them my passport and the code word he's given me and they give me the money.  It would take up to 10 days or maybe longer for a credit card to get to me (if ever), and up to 10 days for a wire transfer through the bank system.  And if it did work it still would require phone calls with 10 hours difference and the phone not working in my hotel room and all the hours I put in on this already.  The good news is WU is the solution in case I or any of you as dumb as me manage to do this again.  I'm sure I've bored you to death with this story so let's move on!

The rest of the month starting tomorrow is a clasical music festival. I couldn't see how to order tickets so I walked over to the concert hall just a couple of blocks from my hotel.  Neither the ticket seller or the other patron spoke English but we managed with my rudimentary Ukrainian   and I bought a ticket for tomorrow night's concert. I think it is a choral  production.  I will be sitting in the orchestra front section and the ticket cost me 50 hraina (less than $5).

At the cafeteria 2 middle aged businessmen asked if they could sit at my table in the cafeteria (the place was full). They are both here on business. One from Latvia and one from Poland. I asked them what they thought was going to happen here.  The Polish guy said "no one knows".  So there you have it.  The Polish guy told me that Lviv was the capital of the Galicia region which included at that time Krakow, Poland (the "next Prague") which I visited along with Vienna and Prague 5 or so years ago.  I liked Krakow the best of the 3 and this city even more  so as it is even more off the beaten path and more authentic and less gentrified.

Wandering the streets in the afternoon I walked into this building which turned out to be the music school. I suspected it was from the sounds emanating from it.  Piano, violin etc.  I wandered the halls poked my head into one of the many class rooms took some pics and videos of the students practicing in the hallways and stair wells whilst waiting to take their lessons.

The sounds and energy were thrilling!  I hadn't read anything about this in the guide books so it just goes to show how important is wandering and following your intutition (I almost didn't go in this unmarked building) .

Unfortunately I was unable to load these pictures from my old Canon camera into my new Samsung Tablet.  But I promise I'll go back and get some live videos with my new Samsung phone and some shots from the Lviv Philharmonic if nobody stops me.

It's great to see these young people providing hope for the future of classical music and their beautiful country!

Thanks for reading!

"It is not possible"

Monday May 12,  2014
"It is not possible" says the impossibly beautifully, young 20 something,  woman.  To which I reply "Yes it is".  When I walked into the bank she greeted me. She's very stylishly dressed as are all the young women here.  While we are talking she fingers and adjusts her colorful neck scarf to perfection.  So different from my visit to Turkey last year where half or more of the women wear their scarfs on their heads and are conservatively dressed.

Turkey is just across the Black Sea, but there  is a world of difference.  I told her I wanted to get money using my bank card numbers shown on the copies of the cards which I showed her.  She talks to the bank manager in Ukrainian. He in his late 30's or early 40's and apparently does not speak English.

You see I know better since the hotel was able to process my credit card with just the numbers.  They didn't need the physical card.  So it makes sense that the bank could do likewise.  Right?  Wrong!  As I found out when I went to the next bank and repeated the process. Another stylishly dressed incredibly young and beautiful woman speaking fluent English communicating and interpreting between me and a higher up -- this time a woman -- who does not speak English. She tells me (as did the last one) that the answer is Western Union and I learn this is going to cost about 9% if the rate in the US is the same as here which it may or may not be she can't say what it will be.     Time to do this?  Maybe minutes once the telegram is sent from the US I can take it to any of the many banks or store fronts with the Western Union sign on their front door or window.  I can get a family member, friend or my Broker to send the money.

In my on line Chat session with my Broker's agent (in India or Bangladesh?)  last night I was told to call collect Monday 8:30 AM to find out how this works, how long etc.  Well I find this out in a matter of minutes here this morning.  Now I have to wait another 10 hours to get this going (pacific time vs time here).  If the Broker just had some people working on the weekend I could have saved a great deal of aggravation and worry.  "Bankers hours' indeed.

I could get my son to do this , but as the urgency is not there now as I  could make it through without additional funds given the low cost of living here and my ability to pinch pennies I choose to wait and learn how the Broker will respond and how it works using them rather than imposing on friends or family.

It's rainy here today and the news continues troubling with violence in the East and the hasty "elections".  Here in Western Ukraine it appears to be business as usual .. well as usual as an ignorant foreigner can observe just from surface appearances.   The contrast with Turkey which is sliding into autocracy is interesting to see and here where the people appear to be looking to establish better governance is fascinating to me.  I had wanted to revisit Turkey but see it's trending inexorably towards less freedom and democracy.  The outcome seems less certain to me here.  I hope for the best for these people.

Tomorrow I'll tell you how this all works out.  Thanks for reading!

Despair and Euphoria

5/10/2014
My neighbor can't fedex my credit cards because of the money laundering restrictions here!  This is a major disappointment and cause for concern.  What with sleep deprivation worrying about this and jet lag I go through panic and despair offset by brief moments of euphoria that I should be able to figure this out.  Spend hours working with Broker on sending me debit card to replace one left home.  Don't know if they can do or not.  Really difficult process as I have to work with their secure messaging center and a relatively new smart phone and using their chat messaging system to get somebody to look at what I've sent them.  The customer service people at Broker are great, the systems not so .. especially if you are not familiar with them and you are using a smart phone that is relatively new to you. After hours spent and 3 sessions .. one at dinner time .. next middle of the night .. and final in the morning I learn that it takes 2 days for them to create a new card, they won't do this on the weekend (it's Saturday) and then it's going to take up to another 7  working days to get to me through customs.  I need to call them collect on Monday they won't start the process on the weekend, no one works there on the weekend. Ridiculous.  I expect on Monday  I'll find out they can't get it to me even then because of the restrictions noted above.

So how about a wire transfer? Broker tells me this can take 10 days internationally.  Though this sounds stupid and technogically it is, I know the Broker guy is right from what I have read. He suggests Western Union. Amazing .. old company beats new. A friend also recommends this. My jet lag and sleep deprivation making it hard to think clearly so I enlist his help in thinking this through.  Nothing like great friends available by email!

Lots of Western Union store fronts here but all closed on weekend so will have to check this Monday.  Broker guy says WU can do this in a couple of days.  Also and most importantly I can live here very cheaply.  My hotel was able to process my credit card with the numbers alone, didn't need physical card. Breakfast is included so I eat a big one and scarf some stuff for lunch.

Today I spent 37 hryvnia to add to my cell data plan. 29 hryvnia for a cup of coffee and 63 for dinner at a great cafeteria .. good food and nice kind of elegant decor where I am writing this - free WIFI. This local currency (around 12/dollar) converts to around only $11 for the day and the cell data plan will last for a number of days if I limit usage.  I'm just using this for emailing. Went to a number of stores for a local sim card with the best plan. They all tell me its the best one for data not good for telephone.  That's what I want as don't plan to do anything but email with it and secure Internet access. I don't want to use public wifi for that.  For surfing I use my Samsung tablet with Logitech folio bluetooth keyboard .. works great.  .. and public free WIFI available in hotel  and all the many great cafes in town.  (This is the bestest place I have ever been for cafes and coffee .. one of my favorite things and a major reason I came here).

See I'm not as dumb as I look as I brought copiè of front and back of all my credit cards so have all the numbers.  And I can make a plane reservation with these if I have to exit earlier than planned if situation heats up here.  And I brought more cash than I usually do knowing I might need it here and given the vulnerability of the local currency I thought it might be of extra value to have it.  So I think I may have more than I need in cash if I'm frugal .. which I'm pretty good at.

I have stopped beating myself up.  Lesson I've learned is we screw up but we can make it worse if we don't just accept our foibles and focus on coping. And its good to have backup systems .. like essential.

Every cloud has a silver lining.  This one has a gold lining.  Lviv is maybe the best city I've ever visited.  Great architecture, cafes and cultural scene. Imagine Vienna or Prague at a fraction of the cost. And without all the tourists! Just what I was hoping for and why I came here (for all of you who have wondered and asked).  The people are friendly though reserved (my favorite combination).

I check the news periodically. My  favorite source is kyvivpost.com. While the news continues grim and troublesome for the country.. so far I think its ok for me here in Western Ukraine. Things feel ok here on the street. Of course I don't  speak the language .. very difficult but want to spend more time on this as I started learning a few weeks before coming here. No sense or feeling of  street crime, pick pockets etc. or shifty characters. Though I am always watchful wherever in the world I go. The most dangerous thing I've seen is the boys riding their bikes on the sidewalks weaving within the pedestrians with only inches to spare. Important to remember to walk in a straight line or you could experience a serious collision.

I've  got some great pictures.  Will show you in next post.  In spite of the rough patch I'm very happy to be here.  Much to see and explore and share with you in coming days as I move the focus from my financial situation to more pleasant pursuits.  

Thanks for reading!

An Unwelcome Surprise

5/8/2014 4 pm
I'm at the gate boarding my plane in an hour or so and decide to get a cup of coffee.  Check to see I have my credit and debit cards. I don't have them with me!   I check and look in all the places.   This is not possible!  They have to be in the belt pack in which I carry everything important money, passport etc. I check and recheck. Fly to Ukraine with no money?  Cancel my trip?  Where did they go?   I remember putting them in the zipper pocket of my pack.  Did someone take them out of it when I put it in the tray you put stuff in to go through security?  No, cuz they left the money I had in the pack.  So I call the Broker that has my debit card bank account.  I get this really great guy on the line who spends at least 45 minutes trying to walk me thru writing a hand letter (they need my signature) to authorize sending me a new card to my hotel in Ukraine --- taking a picture of the letter -- attaching it to an email -- then going online to my account to send a secure message -- I can't just email it -- this all under great pressure as I am dealing with a new smart phone -- and under the gun because they are boarding the plane as I do this.  The final step fails as the free WIFI for United Airlines requires you to agree to their disclaimer and I can't find the check box on the screen nor can the guy in the check in counter argh!  So I have to board the plane, or cancel my trip. Times up.  OK I'm going. And now they have no room for my carry on bag so I have to check it!  I travel light but by being almost the last one to board ... oh well. I get to my seat and open the rack above it.  It's empty.  I run back up the aisle ,.. they let me retrieve my bag and I stowe it above my seat.  My luck is turning!  I sit down, we take off and it dawns on me.  Being extra cautious I copied my credit card and debit card in case they got lost on this trip.  They must still be on the copy machine at home!  I haven't been able to reach my neighbor by phone or email but maybe in Munich, our stopover I'll get her and she can Fedex them to me.  And I have enough cash if the hotel believes my story to hold me for a couple of days.
So you thought I was nuts to go to Ukraine?  How about I told you I was going to do it without money?  Well, fortunately, knowing that the weak local currency could make dollars useful I brought a few, not enough if I don't get my credit cards but I will somehow.  Right?  So the adventure begins before I planned and certainly not what I was looking for.  But, one side benefit.   This should make you feel better about yourself.  Certainly you wouldn't do anything this stupid.

Thanks for reading.  I'll let you know how this turns out and, hopefully, get on with the the planned adventure I planned on blogging!